How big will the electronic cigarette market grow
We regularly get excited here at E-Lites – we are fairly excitable people –but excitement hit new heights when we read a report from America that stated
“the electronic cigarette sector is a…fairly new category, and that’s what I find so exciting. I’m making some pretty big predictions. I think it’s possible that consumption of e-cigarettes could surpass that of traditional cigarettes within the next decade.”
The comment came from Bonnie Herzog, senior market analyst at Wells Fargo – a name known to many from old Western movies but actually Bonnie works in its Research & Economics Department as Managing Director and senior beverage and tobacco analyst. Prior to joining Wells Fargo, Herzog followed the beverage and tobacco sectors at Citigroup where she was ranked in the top 3 on the Institutional Investor Equity Research Survey for 7 consecutive years. She had previously covered these sectors at Credit Suisse. Herzog began her career at KPMG as a senior management consultant specializing in the banks and investment industry. Suffice to say she knows her stuff and her comments are taken seriously, and have generated lots of comment.
Currently the USA market for the electronic cigarette generates roughly $300 million at retail in the USA and this number that is expected to grow exponentially—developing into a $1 billion category.
The market in the USA is perhaps a little advanced of the UK market – but not by a great deal so we should hope to see this growth level cross the ‘pond’. There are already around 600,000 regular UK vapers, and estimates of around 2million who have tried ecigs. However the latest estimates are that there are 10 million adult smokers in the UK. As our recent survey of 1000 smokers reported around half (47.3%) saying they had no expectation of quitting in the next 12 months. The recent Stoptober quit smoking campaign appears to confirm that the all-or-nothing approach from the NHS means many smokers have low expectations of being able to quit. E-lites are not a stop smoking aids but can be an effective harm reduction tool.
All in all these figures point to a big future for the electronic cigarette sector.
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